Yield Forecasts

GDA delivers crop specific end-of-season yield forecasts at national and sub-national levels for the current growing season and its comparison to historical yield statistics. GDA yield forecasts are supported by a proprietary global crop database that includes historical statistics and constantly updated current data from across the globe. GDA focuses on operational delivery of analytical intelligence that improves the timeliness and accuracy of current and projected crop commodity information. Current product offerings include national and sub-national monthly yield forecast e-Reports and real-time, 24/7 on-line national and sub-national yield forecast services. All major commodity crops including grains, cereals, oilseeds and cotton (among others) are included.

To accommodate the various informational and usage requirements of the clients, GDA offers two efficient and easy-to-use interfaces to its online yield forecast service: a website interface that allows clients to run customized yield forecasts at any time on demand, and a yield forecast reporting service that delivers consolidated executive-summary yield forecasts on a pre-determined schedule. GDA provides crop-related intelligence data products for all major regions across the globe for all major commodity crops. This data is derived from sophisticated analysis of domestic and international crops with satellite imagery. GDA relies on daily historical and current time series satellite imagery for direct observation and analysis of crop status/conditions.

GDA yield forecasts provide a crop type specific end-of-season yield forecast per administrative unit for the current growing season and its comparison to historical yield statistics.

Sample GIS map of RSA Yield Forecasts and percent change over previous year and five year average, respectively

GDA relies on daily historical and current time series satellite imagery for direct observation and analysis of crop status/conditions and yield forecasts.

Over the past several years, GDA has developed a detailed, field level, spatial database that provides information on locations of individual fields and their crop planting history. High and medium resolution imagery and, whenever available, national data (such as USDA NASS CDL and FSA CLU) were used to develop the database. The database is constantly updated with current GDA crop maps and ancillary maps. Historical and current crop type and location information from the database is used to guide collection of time series observations of crop status/conditions for the yield forecasts. GDA yield forecasts rely on direct observations of crops and their change over time with remotely sensed data and take into account crop density / LAI, plant chlorophyll content, and plant water content which are measured daily by NASA’s MODIS sensor onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, every 5 days by sensors onboard IRS-P6 satellite, and every 16 days by Landsat 5 TM and 7 ETM+ sensors.

GDA builds its yield forecasts on analysis of site-specific multi-temporal relationships between yield and crop conditions measured by satellite data. Site specific assessment is of particular importance as establishment of, and reliance upon, local relations allows GDA to avoid propagation of site specific yield and crop condition relations from one area to another thereby improving the accuracy of the forecast. Furthermore, the site specific assessment minimizes the influence of local, unchanging variables such as soil, topography, and management and policy practices on the yield estimation and allows the exclusion of these variables from the analysis.

Sample GDA Yield Forecast chart with historical yield estimates

GDA yield forecasts are based on statistical analysis of crop status/conditions metrics derived from current and historical imagery and historical yield statistics. Various crop critical measures are utilized in the analysis, including start of the season, end of the season, end of greenup, start of senescence, peak of the growing season, mid-senescence, length of season, rate of greenup, rate of senescence, etc.

GDA yield forecasts are supported by a proprietary global crop database on historical yield, area, production, crop practices, progress and phenology, etc. at national and sub-national levels. GDA’s database of crop statistics is constantly being updated with new and revised crop statistics from reliable sources which increases the number of available global regions for performing yield forecasts as well as improves the yield forecast accuracy.

Yield forecasts are presented to clients in tabular, graphic, and map forms. Tabular and graphic data shows:

• yield forecast value and forecast error range for each administrative unit
• historical yield trend
• 5-year average historical yield
• percent difference between current forecast and the last year estimate
• percent difference between current forecast and the historical average estimate

Maps present:

• current yield forecast per administrative unit
• percent difference between current forecast and the last year estimate
• percent difference between current forecast and the historical average estimate.

Please contact us about purchase information.

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